WS #11063

The data window shows a de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Bloomberg reporting that supertankers are sailing into the Persian Gulf and traffic picking up, directly countering the previous narrative of an imminent closure. This is corroborated by Polymarket bets on normal traffic returning. Separately, a growing oil glut is spurring Asian refiners to offer cargoes to the US, further dampening bullish oil sentiment. The OMFIF survey reveals a historic shift: for the first time, more central banks expect to decrease dollar allocations than increase them over the next decade, with 82% now holding physical gold (up from 71%). This is a medium-term bearish signal for the USD and bullish for gold. Crypto remains under pressure: Bitcoin holds below $60,000 as the yen hits a 40-year low, and Strategy's potential bitcoin sales add caution. XRP shows improving network activity and ETF inflows but remains range-bound. AeroVironment surged 21% after hours on CEO comments about counter-drone growth. The dominant narrative is DE-ESCALATING geopolitical risk from Iran/Hormuz, countered by a growing oil glut and a structural shift in central bank reserve preferences away from the dollar.