WS #11065

The data window is dominated by sports (World Cup) and noise (Polymarket bets, weather, celebrity politics). Key market signals include: (1) ECB's Lane comments on elevated oil prices and confidence not at pre-war levels, reinforcing persistent inflation concerns; (2) Strait of Hormuz traffic picking up and Persian Gulf oil output ramping up, a counter-signal to the prior oil supply crisis narrative; (3) UK GDP Q1 QoQ at 0.6% in line with estimates, UK retail sales beat, Germany retail sales beat; (4) China's factory activity (PMI) improved more than forecast; (5) Supreme Court ruling expands presidential power over independent regulators, a win for Trump; (6) Apple iPhone 18 Pro supplier leak from Tata data breach; (7) Prologis publishes investor presentation for possible SEGRO combination; (8) ARK Invest continues buying crypto stocks (Coinbase, Circle) during dip; (9) Ionic Digital files for Nasdaq direct listing; (10) Tenstorrent shoots down Qualcomm buyout rumors. The dominant narrative is STABLE: no escalation in geopolitical risks, with oil supply concerns easing and economic data mixed but not alarming.