WS #11079
The dominant signal in this window is the rapid de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources confirming a sharp rebound in tanker traffic and US-Iran indirect talks underway in Doha. Morgan Stanley has slashed oil price forecasts, citing the faster-than-expected return of supply. This is a major counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply disruption thesis. Separately, AeroVironment's blowout earnings and record defense backlog signal strength in the defense/drone sector. The US JOLTS data came in well above expectations at 7.618M vs 7.2955M forecast, indicating a still-tight labor market. On the macro front, JPM's Michele sees Fed 'maintenance hikes' next year, while Sberbank's CEO renewed calls for a Russian rate cut. The SK Hynix US IPO filing and Micron's $250M Trump Account investment are notable corporate actions. Bitcoin bearish sentiment persists with a warning it could fall below $50K.
Topics
Key developments
- Strait of Hormuz traffic rebounds >50% in past week; Morgan Stanley slashes oil price forecasts
- AeroVironment Q4 revenue doubles, backlog up 65%, shares surge 28%+
- US JOLTS job openings beat expectations at 7.618M vs 7.2955M forecast
- JPM's Michele sees Fed 'maintenance hikes' next year; yen at 40-year low
- SK Hynix files for US IPO under ticker SKHY