WS #11102

The dominant theme in this window is the continued de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple signals pointing toward a durable peace. Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf announced a committee with the US and Lebanon to oversee the end of the war in Lebanon, and Netanyahu stated there are more peace agreements on the agenda. Commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen more than 50% over the past week, and oil prices are declining on hopes for a permanent deal. This is a major counter-signal to the previous war-driven bearish macro narrative and is de-escalating further. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% (7-2 vote), with Governor Bailey expressing caution but noting encouraging news on energy prices. The Fed also held rates steady at its June meeting, with the statement acknowledging that inflation remains elevated partly due to energy supply shocks. In tech, HPE skyrocketed 30% on its biggest earnings beat since 2018, driven by AI server demand, while Oracle had its worst week since 2001 on AI financing concerns. Anthropic launched Claude Sonnet 5 as a cheaper agentic AI model, and the Trump administration allowed limited release of Anthropic's Mythos 5 model. Chinese tech stocks continued to sell off, with the Hang Seng Index briefly below 23,000 and Alibaba at a 16-month low after Anthropic accused it of IP theft. Crypto saw Bitcoin testing $59K as ETFs shed $692M, with the yen hitting a 39-year low against the dollar.