WS #11121

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of Iran-US tensions, with Iranian chief negotiator Ghalibaf stating Iran is 'ready for war' if the US does not comply with the MoU, and that Strait of Hormuz toll plans with Oman could collapse negotiations. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Times of India, Open.online, GDELT) and represents an escalation from the previous situational awareness. The hawkish Fed narrative is reinforced by a Reuters report that US Fed fund futures now imply an ~80% chance of a September rate hike, and US Treasury futures extended their slide. Trump's 2025 financial disclosure, showing over $1.4 billion in crypto-related income, is widely reported (CoinDesk, Decrypt, Bloomberg, The Block) and introduces a significant policy-risk dimension for crypto regulation. Nikkei futures traded sharply higher (71,180 vs cash close 70,062), indicating a strong Asian market open. Apple's Tim Cook held 'constructive' talks with the EU tech chief over Siri AI, a positive signal for AAPL. The US Commerce Department is expected to lift export controls on Fable (Anthropic's Claude) tonight, a positive for AI-related stocks. Michael Burry is reported to have shorted TSLA and CAT while going long MSFT, a notable contrarian signal. Oil prices steadied as peace talks and Hormuz flows remain in focus, but the geopolitical risk remains elevated. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on Iran/Hormuz tensions and hawkish Fed expectations, while Trump's crypto disclosure adds a new policy-risk dimension.