WS #11149

The dominant narrative is the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Strait of Hormuz traffic recovering and oil prices falling below $70. However, new signals emerge: the US has lifted export controls on Anthropic's AI models, clearing the path for its IPO. Eurozone inflation fell faster than expected to 2.8%, boosting rate-cut hopes. Microsoft is reportedly planning thousands of layoffs. Bitcoin dropped to a 21-month low near $57,700 amid Fed rate-hike fears and crypto ETF outflows. Tesla's Q2 delivery expectations are mixed, with European demand rising but US sales pressured. The Japanese yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar, raising intervention risks. Trump disclosed over $1 billion in crypto earnings, highlighting regulatory conflicts. South Korean exports surged past $100 billion in June on chip demand, a positive for semiconductor stocks. The USMCA review suggests the US is unlikely to extend the free trade deal, a negative for Mexico and Canada. Eurozone inflation for June came in at 2.8% year-over-year, below the 3.0% consensus and down from 3.2% in May, driven by falling energy prices as Middle East tensions eased. This strengthens the case for the ECB to hold rates steady at its July 23 meeting, boosting European equities and rate-sensitive sectors. The US has lifted export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models, restoring access for foreign nationals after a two-week blackout. This removes a key overhang for Anthropic's IPO and signals a pro-AI regulatory stance, positive for AI-related tech stocks. Microsoft is reportedly planning to cut under 2.5% of its workforce (several thousand roles), affecting sales, consulting, and Xbox divisions. This follows a 4% cut in July 2025 and adds to negative sentiment for MSFT and the broader tech sector. Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low of $57,742, pressured by hawkish Fed rhetoric and record outflows of over $4.5 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in June. The crypto selloff is broad-based, with Ethereum and other altcoins also declining. Trump's financial disclosure revealed over $1.4 billion in crypto-related earnings in 2025, including $635 million from meme coin licensing, raising conflict-of-interest concerns. South Korea announced a $1 trillion investment program in semiconductors, AI, and robotics, with Samsung and SK Hynix planning $585 billion in new chip fabs. This is a major positive for semiconductor stocks like NVDA, AMD, and memory makers. The US is set to formally declare a non-extension of the USMCA trade agreement, triggering a 10-year decoupling process. This adds uncertainty for Mexico and Canada but may benefit US domestic producers. Getty Images scrapped its $3.7 billion merger with Shutterstock after the UK CMA imposed conditions, removing a potential consolidation in the stock image market. CoStar Group acquired a 30% stake in Italian real estate marketplace Wikicasa, expanding its European footprint. Wedbush initiated coverage on Voyager Technologies (VOYG) with an Outperform and $46 target, citing defense contracts and Starlab optionality. Guggenheim upgraded Salesforce (CRM) to Buy with a $228 target. Morgan Stanley upgraded Grindr (GRND) to Overweight, sending shares up 5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 9.55% and 12.79% year-to-date respectively, despite a June pullback, with the best quarterly performance since 2020.