WS #11170

The dominant narrative from this window is a significant escalation in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, with multiple sources corroborating strikes on the Omsk refinery (Russia's largest, previously untouched) and reports of severe fuel shortages in Russia. This is coupled with ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, where a ship ran aground and Iran continues to exert control. However, a potential counter-signal emerged: US-Iran talks in Qatar are ongoing, with Trump expressing satisfaction, and Brent crude fell 2% to $71.48 on the news, suggesting some de-escalation premium is being priced in. Separately, Fed Chair Warsh reiterated inflation is 'too high' but gave no new rate-hike signal, keeping July odds cool. In tech, Meta's cloud news hammered neocloud stocks CoreWeave and Nebius (down ~13%), while Google launched Gemini Spark on Mac and was ordered to pay Klarna $2bn in antitrust damages. Coinbase shares surged 11%.