WS #11176

The data window shows a significant macro shift: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Sintra, emphasizing political independence and a commitment to price stability, effectively pushing back against rate cut expectations. This is a high-signal development that counters the prevailing market narrative of imminent easing. Simultaneously, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Qatar are reported as 'very good' by Trump, with a preliminary deal to unfreeze $3B for Iran and the Strait of Hormuz shipping resuming, though at only one-third of normal volumes. This de-escalation is a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, driving WTI lower. On the tech front, a rotation out of AI infrastructure into software is evident: semis (MU, LRCX) are down sharply, while AAPL, GOOGL, META hold green. Meta is reportedly forming a cloud business to rent excess compute, pressuring AI cloud stocks. Micron pledged a $250M investment in Trump Accounts. OpenAI efficiency gains are hammering chip stocks (SOX -5%). Salesforce rose 5.7% on a Guggenheim upgrade. The Empire State Building climbing incident is noise. The dominant narrative is a hawkish Fed pivot and easing geopolitical tensions, which is bullish for bonds and bearish for gold and oil in the near term, while tech faces a rotation.