WS #11196

The dominant signal in this window is a broad semiconductor selloff, with TSMC (TSM) down ~6.5% near its worst day since the DeepSeek scare in Jan 2025, and Micron (MU) falling ~10% after a Trump-linked policy headline failed to support the stock. The selloff is compounded by reports that Taiwanese prosecutors detained two Super Micro (SMCI) employees in a probe into alleged Nvidia chip smuggling to China, sending SMCI down ~4.5%. This adds regulatory risk to the AI supply chain. Separately, a Reuters exclusive reveals SoftBank is in talks with lenders for a $10B margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Mizuho expected to participate. This signals SoftBank's aggressive capital-raising to fund AI investments. On the macro front, oil prices continue to slide (Brent ~$71, WTI ~$68) as US-Iran talks in Qatar are viewed positively, with Trump saying denuclearization is 'going well.' This counters the prior oil supply crisis narrative. The market narrative is one of tech/AI supply chain stress (semis down, regulatory probes) offset by de-escalation in energy markets and a valuation-driven bounce in enterprise SaaS after Guggenheim upgraded Salesforce and ServiceNow on valuation grounds. The MAG7 narrative shows TSLA up ~1.4% as meme traders target the $420 level, while AAPL is seeking memory components from Chinese suppliers for devices sold in China, a geopolitical supply chain move. Overall, the window is characterized by semiconductor weakness, AI financing activity, and oil price de-escalation.