WS #11213

The dominant theme in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Iran war oil premium, which is DE-ESCALATING. Multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, Financial Post, GDELT) confirm Strait of Hormuz flows have surged past 10M bbl/day, with US VP Vance stating flows are back to pre-war levels. US-Iran talks in Doha concluded with no breakthrough but no breakdown, and OPEC+ is expected to approve another 188K bpd production increase at its Sunday meeting. Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast to $75/bbl. This oil de-escalation is a powerful counter-signal to the war-driven inflation thesis and supports consumer discretionary and airline stocks while weighing on energy names. Separately, the tech rotation out of semiconductors into AI/cloud plays continues: Meta (META) surged 8.8% on plans to sell excess AI compute capacity, while semiconductor stocks (MU, AMD, INTC, MRVL, AMAT) saw sharp declines. Apple (AAPL) remains under pressure from DRAM-driven price hikes and a DCF model suggesting 18% overvaluation. Insider selling signals persist: GOOGL President of Global Affairs sold 8,998 shares, ABNB insider sold 294,903 shares. European equity futures are slightly lower (Eurostoxx -0.3%, DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.2%). The US jobs report is due Thursday, with markets closed Friday for July 4th.