WS #11217

The dominant theme in this window is the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources reporting positive progress in Doha talks focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven oil prices sharply lower (Brent below $71, WTI near $68), stripping out geopolitical risk premium. The US and Iran agreed to a one-week de-escalation ahead of July 4th celebrations, though a permanent deal remains elusive. Separately, Fed Chair Warsh maintained a hawkish stance, keeping rate hike expectations alive (September hike priced at 64% probability), which weighed on tech stocks (Nasdaq -0.66%). Gold rose on weak ADP jobs data and lower oil. Meta surged 7% on reports it may enter cloud infrastructure services, a potential new revenue stream. Apple faces regulatory headwinds: Russia's FAS warned Apple over default search engine, and EU plans to regulate its cloud business under DMA. Apple also raised prices across Mac/iPad lineups due to memory shortages, squeezing margins. The US men's national team's World Cup win is noise for markets. Overall, the macro narrative is shifting from geopolitical risk to Fed policy and earnings, with oil's decline acting as a counter-signal to inflation fears but also signaling demand concerns.