WS #11234

The dominant theme in this window is the sharp escalation of the Russia-Ukraine energy war, with multiple corroborating sources reporting a massive Russian ballistic missile strike on Kyiv (28 missiles, 18 killed) and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's Kstovo oil refinery (Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez), hitting the AVT-6 unit and triggering a fire. These strikes are part of a broader campaign that has cut Russian refining capacity by a third, causing fuel shortages and rationing that now ripple into Central Asia. This escalation is cross-corroborated by AP, Guardian, and multiple OSINT sources, marking a significant intensification of the conflict's energy dimension. Separately, the EU's top court upheld Google's €4.1 billion Android antitrust fine, a high-significance regulatory blow to Alphabet that reinforces EU platform liability. On the macro front, WTI crude fell 2% to $67.20, reflecting the complex interplay of ceasefire hopes and ongoing supply disruptions. The US nonfarm payrolls report due today is the key catalyst for risk assets, with expectations for a soft print that could validate Fed Chair Warsh's dovish inflation view and boost bitcoin and gold. In corporate news, Palantir was upgraded to Buy at DA Davidson with a $175 target, Dollar Tree announced a $2.5B buyback, and Ouster priced a $200M stock offering at $55.22, sending shares down 7%.