WS #11252

The dominant signal in this window is the US June jobs report, which showed a sharp miss (57K vs 113K expected) with significant downward revisions to prior months. This dramatically reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike and accelerates the timeline for rate cuts, with markets now pricing two cuts by April 2027. The weak data is driving a dollar selloff (EUR/USD above 1.14), lower Treasury yields, and a mixed equity reaction with S&P 500 modestly higher but tech under pressure. Separately, Tesla's Q2 delivery beat (480K vs 406K est.) was met with a sell-the-news reaction as shares fell ~7%, with the market focusing on BYD reclaiming the global EV sales crown and margin concerns. The Strait of Hormuz situation continues to escalate, with European powers now accepting that shipping fees to Iran/Oman are inevitable, which supports oil prices and energy stocks while pressuring shipping and airlines. The yen strengthened into the 160 range on intervention fears, adding to currency volatility. The narrative is shifting from 'soft landing' to 'growth scare' following the payrolls miss, with the labor force shrinking 720K as a key concern.