WS #11284

The dominant narrative from the prior window remains largely stable, but several new data points have emerged. The US June non-farm payrolls report showed only 57,000 jobs added, well below the 110,000 consensus, which has eased rate hike fears and boosted European and Dow Jones indices. However, this has triggered a sharp rotation out of tech and AI-related stocks, with the Nasdaq falling 0.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 5.44%. Tesla reported strong Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, beating expectations by a wide margin, yet the stock fell 7.49% as optimism was already priced in. Oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude falling to $70.91, as progress in US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz eased supply concerns. A new development is the US offering Iran a barter deal involving the Strait of Hormuz, which could further depress oil prices. Microsoft announced a new AI adoption unit with $2.5 billion in funding, while Meta Platforms jumped 10% on reports of plans to sell AI compute capacity, challenging Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Trump's financial disclosure revealed $1.2 billion in crypto earnings and 327 stock trades made just before a tariff pause, raising ethics concerns. The overall narrative is one of market rotation from tech to cyclicals, with oil prices declining and AI capex stories diverging.