WS #11295

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US conflict and its impact on oil markets, with a tentative de-escalation underway. Brent oil is around $72, with Citi forecasting a decline to $60 by year-end as Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease. Kuwait's oil production surged to 1.65 million bpd in June from 580,000 bpd in May, and Saudi supertankers are moving through the strait, confirming supply recovery. However, a new development is the report that European powers may accept Iran-Oman fees for Hormuz transit, which could formalize a toll system and keep geopolitical risk elevated. Bitcoin ETFs saw a $221 million inflow, ending a 10-day outflow streak, providing a bullish signal for crypto. Apple's Asian suppliers rallied on higher iPhone production plans, a positive for AAPL. Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat expectations, driven by China and Europe, supporting TSLA. The US jobs report showed weaker-than-expected payroll growth, reducing the odds of a Fed rate hike in September and weakening the dollar. Gold surged above $4,200/oz, reflecting safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. The narrative arc is STABLE for the Iran conflict, with supply recovery ongoing but new toll proposals adding complexity. The macro theme is a slight risk-on tilt due to softer US labor data and oil price declines, but AI hardware stocks remain under pressure from valuation concerns.