WS #11311

The dominant narrative from the previous window—de-escalating US-Iran tensions and oil falling to ~$70/bbl—is STABLE but with new details emerging. Iran is insisting on Strait of Hormuz tolls even as the US dangles billions (WSJ, 14:21), and Saudi supertankers have exited the Strait, with Aramco switching to spot pricing to boost Asian sales (Reuters, 14:19). This confirms the oil glut narrative and keeps pressure on crude prices. Separately, the weak US jobs report (57k vs 115k expected) continues to cool rate-hike expectations, boosting gold and rate-sensitive sectors while weighing on the dollar. The tech rotation narrative is STABLE but with a notable MAG7 carve-out: Tesla's Q2 delivery beat (480k vehicles, +25% YoY) is a positive counter-signal to the broader tech sell-off, but TSLA shares fell 7.5% as investors await margin details. Tesla also expanded robotaxi service to Miami. In a separate MAG7 development, Apple has increased foldable iPhone production targets to 10 million units for 2026, up from 7-8 million, signaling strong supply chain confidence. HCLTech's $1.14 billion AI deal boosted IT sector sentiment. The European STOXX 600 hit a record peak. Gold rallied on the weak jobs data, with spot gold up 1.4% on Friday. Oil prices are stable but under pressure from the Hormuz reopening and increased Gulf output. The narrative arc is STABLE for the US-Iran de-escalation and the tech rotation, with the weak jobs data providing a fresh catalyst for gold and rate-sensitive sectors.