WS #11315

The dominant narrative from the previous window—de-escalating US-Iran tensions and oil falling to ~$70/bbl—remains STABLE, but new data points are emerging. OPEC crude output surged in June as Hormuz flows resumed, with production up 2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd, reinforcing the oil supply glut narrative. However, a Reuters exclusive reports that Russia's NORSI oil refinery halted crude processing after a drone attack on July 2, which could tighten refined product supplies. Separately, Canada's PM Mark Carney unveiled a new pipeline project to the West Coast, boosting Canadian stocks and signaling reduced reliance on US export routes. The weak US jobs report (57k vs 115k expected) continues to cool rate-hike expectations, with Fed's Kevin Warsh noting inflation risks have declined, pushing Bitcoin above $61,000 and gold higher. Tesla's Q2 delivery beat (480,126 units, +25% YoY) is a key MAG7 carve-out, contradicting the broader tech selloff narrative. Apple's foldable iPhone Ultra production target raised to 10 million units is another positive MAG7 signal. The EU top court upheld Google's €4.1 billion Android fine, adding regulatory overhang for GOOGL. Michael Burry disclosed new short bets against Micron, NVIDIA, and Applied Materials, signaling bearishness on chip stocks. The dominant theme is STABLE with oil supply dynamics and labor market weakness as key drivers, while MAG7 stocks show mixed signals.