WS #11317

The dominant narrative from the previous window—de-escalating US-Iran tensions and oil supply dynamics—remains STABLE, but new data points are emerging. Houthi threats against Saudi oil infrastructure introduce a new geopolitical risk that could disrupt supply, countering the prevailing oil glut narrative. This development is isolated and lacks corroboration from other sources, so its significance is currently low. No other material changes were detected in this window.