WS #11322

The dominant theme in this window is the rapid normalization of oil markets following the US-Iran ceasefire, with multiple sources confirming a surge in OPEC+ production and a collapse in crude prices back to pre-war levels. Citigroup forecasts Brent falling to $60/barrel by year-end, while OPEC+ June output jumped 2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd as Gulf states restored Hormuz shipments. Brent briefly dipped below $70 for the first time since February. This oil supply shock is the primary macro catalyst, with second-order effects favoring airlines, refiners, and consumer stocks while pressuring energy producers. The weak US jobs report from the prior window continues to support a 'Fed pause' narrative, with Bitcoin ETF inflows surging and BTC recovering above $61,600. European equities closed higher across the board. On the geopolitical front, Iran is reportedly preparing a preemptive ballistic missile strike on Israel, threatening to reignite Middle East tensions. The acting DNI began firing intelligence officials. Meta's plan to sell excess AI compute capacity as a cloud service threatens CoreWeave and Nebius, while CPPIB invested $1.75bn in EQT's AI infrastructure. Tesla sales surged 25% in Q2, signaling a potential recovery in Europe. The oil price collapse and weak jobs data are the key market-moving signals, with the oil glut narrative escalating and the Fed pause narrative stable.