WS #11329

The dominant narrative remains the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its impact on oil markets, with OPEC crude output surging 2.34M b/d in June as Gulf exports resume. However, this is countered by Iran's weeklong funeral for late Supreme Leader Khamenei, which could escalate tensions and disrupt the fragile peace process. The weak U.S. jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) has crushed Fed rate hike bets, driving a dollar selloff and boosting risk assets. The EU's top court sealed Google's record €4.1 billion Android antitrust fine, killing Alphabet's final appeal and opening the door for follow-on damages claims across Europe, a bearish development for GOOGL. Tesla's Q2 deliveries beat estimates at 480,126 vehicles, but the stock fell 7.5% on profit-taking, continuing the pattern of sell-on-news. The NATO summit draft affirms $80B military aid for Ukraine, escalating geopolitical tensions. The oil supply normalization narrative is now facing a counter-signal from Iran's Hormuz threat and the funeral events, making the oil outlook more uncertain. The weak jobs data continues to counter the hawkish Fed narrative, supporting equities and crypto. European markets rallied on the week, with the DAX hitting an all-time high, as rate hike fears faded. Gold is expected to rally in H2 2026 per Goldman Sachs, supported by central bank buying. The AI trade is showing signs of rotation rather than recession, with semiconductor stocks correcting but credit and yields not signaling systemic risk.