WS #11362

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed Ukrainian drone strike on oil infrastructure in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, with multiple sources (Zelenskyy, DW, Al Jazeera, Reuters, and various OSINT accounts) corroborating the attack. Zelenskyy confirmed strikes on the St. Petersburg oil terminal and Kronstadt naval base, with 72 drones shot down over the Leningrad region. This represents an ESCALATION of the Ukraine-Russia energy war narrative, as strikes now reach the Baltic port region and a major naval base. The attack is causing fuel shortages in Russia, with reports of 39-hour waits at gas stations. Separately, the UK and France have agreed with Oman to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying mine countermeasures, which counters the oil supply disruption thesis. Iran has warned against this military display, but the move signals a de-escalation of Hormuz tensions. Oil prices are set for a fourth straight weekly loss as Hormuz flows return and US-Iran talks progress, with Brent at $71.54. The EU has met the US tariff deadline, removing a key risk factor. Gold is recovering on weak US jobs data, with September rate cut probability at 53.5%. Tesla reported record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, beating estimates, but the stock fell 6-8% as the good news was priced in. Meta's $135B capex pivot signals the end of the AI build-out phase, with potential margin compression for cloud competitors. Google lost an eight-year legal battle and must pay a $4.7 billion Android antitrust fine. Bitcoin continues to slide, hitting 57,700, its lowest since September 2024.