WS #11417

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed Ukrainian drone strike on the St. Petersburg oil terminal, reported by multiple sources including AP, Guardian, and local officials. This is an escalation of Ukraine's long-range campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, with Ukrainian claims that 43% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been disabled. The attack has direct implications for global oil supply and energy prices, particularly given the ongoing fragility of the Strait of Hormuz shipping. Separately, Iran's ambassador confirmed that new fees will be charged for Strait of Hormuz transit, with 'special treatment' for friendly nations, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. The Ukraine-Russia war narrative is ESCALATING, while the US-Iran situation remains STABLE but with persistent friction. No counter-signals or de-escalation events have emerged in this window.