WS #11429

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Iran's ambassador to China explicitly stating that 'service fees' will be charged for transit, while promising 'friendly' nations special treatment. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AFP, Moneycontrol, Gulf News, Times of India) and represents a hardening of Iran's position that contradicts the initial 60-day free transit deal. The market impact is significant: oil prices are likely to spike on supply disruption fears, benefiting energy stocks while hurting airlines and shipping. Additionally, at least eight ships were forced to U-turn during transit attempts, confirming ongoing disruption. A key counter-signal is the OPEC+ meeting expected to raise quotas by 188,000 bpd, which could partially offset supply concerns. The Khamenei funeral narrative continues with massive crowds, but no new market-moving developments. Trump's 90-minute call with Putin and Zelenskyy offers a potential de-escalation path for the Ukraine war, but details remain vague. The AI trade narrative shows signs of rotation, with Indian equities gaining as an AI hedge. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Iran's fee announcement hardening the bullish oil thesis.