WS #11440

The dominant narrative in this window is the continued normalization of oil markets following the US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening. OPEC+ has approved a 188,000 bbl/d output increase for August, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, as Gulf exports rebounded above 10 million bbl/d in June. Brent crude has fallen back to ~$72/bbl, erasing the entire war premium from its $126 peak. This disinflationary oil price dynamic is providing relief to Asian central banks, particularly the RBI, allowing them to focus on growth. Separately, Microsoft is reportedly planning a third major layoff round in just over a year, targeting thousands of employees in sales, consulting, and Xbox divisions, though the cuts are expected to be less than 2.5% of its workforce. Foxconn posted a 40% Q2 revenue jump on AI server demand, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout theme. The Khamenei funeral in Iran drew millions but is a backward-looking event with no new market-moving data. The Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery is confirmed by multiple shipping data sources, with tanker crossings reaching the highest level since the conflict began. The oil market normalization narrative is ESCALATING as OPEC+ continues to add supply and prices fall, countering the earlier bullish oil thesis. The Microsoft layoff story is STABLE with no new data beyond the initial report. The Foxconn revenue beat is a fresh positive signal for the AI supply chain.