WS #11442

The dominant theme in this window is the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production quotas by 188,000 bpd starting August 2026, confirmed by multiple sources (Xinhua, Reuters, Bloomberg, OPEC statement). This adds to supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, with Brent crude already back to ~$72/bbl from war peaks above $120. The move reinforces the oil market normalization narrative, pressuring energy stocks but providing disinflationary relief for import-dependent economies. Citigroup forecasts Brent could fall to $60-65 by year-end. Counter-signal: the production increase is largely on paper due to ongoing disruptions, and actual output remains below pre-war levels. Separately, a Bluesky post reports Uber is scrapping expansion plans in five of seven targeted countries including Austria, Norway, and Greece, per Financial Times. This is a negative signal for Uber's growth narrative. The Russia-Ukraine energy war continues with Ukraine striking Russian energy infrastructure, causing fuel rationing in 40+ Russian regions, but this is an ongoing theme with no new escalation. The US-Iran ceasefire holds, with Trump holding separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy on ending the Ukraine war. The Vanguard All-World ETF is near all-time highs, supported by cooling US jobs data (57K vs 115K expected) that reduces rate hike expectations. Gold and silver rebounded on the weak jobs data. Bitcoin remains in bear market territory with ETF outflows. Overall, the narrative is STABLE with oil normalization continuing, but the OPEC+ hike is a new data point reinforcing the trend.