WS #11520

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of Ukraine's deep-strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, with multiple sources corroborating a drone strike on Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, over 2,500 km from the border. This follows a pattern of increasing attacks, with reports that Russia has lost over 40% of its oil production capacity. The strike adds another ~8% potential capacity loss, tightening global oil supply and supporting crude prices. Separately, Microsoft announced 4,800 job cuts globally, including significant Xbox restructuring, as part of cost-cutting and AI refocusing. This is a negative signal for MSFT but consistent with the broader tech layoff trend. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.0 (in line), but the Employment subindex jumped to 51.2 from 47.9, indicating labor market resilience. Trump's comments on Ukraine ('getting closer than people realize') and Iran ('not looking for regime change') suggest diplomatic progress, which could de-escalate geopolitical risk premiums. However, the Ukraine drone strikes counter that narrative. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on the Ukraine-Russia energy war front, while diplomatic signals are mixed. Additionally, TeraWulf signed a 20-year data center lease with Anthropic expected to generate $19 billion in revenue, boosting WULF. Dell stock surged after Trump urged investors to buy the stock, linking it to his Trump Accounts program. Hamas announced dissolution of its Gaza governing body, a significant political shift that could impact Middle East stability and oil risk premiums.