WS #11584

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukrainian drones striking Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk and attacking eight Russian 'Shadow Fleet' oil tankers in the Sea of Azov. This adds to energy supply disruption fears, reinforcing the bullish case for oil and energy stocks. Separately, explosions in Damascus during French President Macron's visit add geopolitical risk, though Macron is safe and the visit continues. On the macro front, the ECB's Lagarde confirmed a rate hike in June, citing rising inflation excluding energy and food, and the Fed's June FOMC statement maintained rates at 3.5-3.75%, noting elevated inflation partly due to energy shocks. The BoE held rates at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote, noting falling energy prices but persistent inflation. China's PBOC bought more gold in June, extending its buying streak, which supports gold prices. Global chip stocks are in the red after Samsung's selloff on quarterly results, and Synopsys is cutting chip fab software to focus on AI design. The Strait of Hormuz narrative is DE-ESCALATING with the ceasefire, but energy infrastructure damage and replenishment needs keep prices elevated. The tech selloff narrative is STABLE, with mixed signals: Samsung weakness drags on semiconductors, but AI-related capex and demand remain strong.