WS #11608

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in Strait of Hormuz tensions, with Iran striking three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker, via drone and missile attacks. This directly contradicts the prior narrative of de-escalation and threatens to reverse the recent oil price decline. Separately, Microsoft is replacing OpenAI and Anthropic models with its own in-house AI in some apps, a significant MAG7 carve-out that signals cost control and vertical integration at MSFT, while the broader tech sector is under pressure from Samsung's preliminary Q2 results and DeepSeek's plans to develop its own AI chips, weighing on NVDA and semiconductor stocks. The New York Fed survey showed rising inflation expectations, adding to macro headwinds. The Vera Therapeutics FDA approval for Trutakna is a positive biotech catalyst for VERA. The US is lifting sanctions on Turkey and considering F-35 sales, a geopolitical shift with defense sector implications. The tech selloff is the dominant theme, but the Strait of Hormuz attacks are a high-significance counter-signal that could drive energy stocks higher and exacerbate inflation concerns.