WS #11610

Geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated sharply, with three tankers struck in 24 hours, including a Qatari LNG vessel. Oil prices surged ~3% (Brent above $74, WTI above $70) as the UKMTO reported attacks and Qatar directly blamed Iran. The JMIC raised the maritime threat level to 'Severe'. This development counters the prevailing thesis of de-escalation following the US-Iran truce, and comes as Trump arrives at the NATO summit in Ankara. Separately, a broad semiconductor selloff is underway after Samsung's record profit failed to meet lofty AI expectations, dragging down NVDA, MU, ASML, and others. DeepSeek is reportedly developing its own AI chip, adding pressure on NVDA. Microsoft announced 4,800 job cuts, but the stock rose ~2% as the market focused on AI/cloud pivot. Amazon plans a $25B bond sale to fund AI capex. The IOC lifted Russia's suspension, paving way for Russian athletes at LA 2028 Olympics. The dominant theme is ESCALATING Middle East tensions and DE-ESCALATING AI/chip sentiment.