WS #11615

The dominant market-moving theme in this window is the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with the U.S. Treasury revoking Iran-related General License X and issuing General License X1, effectively ending authorization for Iranian oil sales. This follows Iranian attacks on multiple vessels, including a Qatari LNG tanker, in the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources (pro-wire, Axios, Reuters, multiple Bluesky posts) corroborate the revocation and the attacks, pushing oil prices up over 3% and European gas futures up roughly 7%. This is a significant escalation from the previous window, which noted no de-escalation signals. The U.S. has warned of consequences, and the Trump administration is also reportedly considering removing Turkey from sanctions lists, which could have geopolitical implications. The crisis is clearly escalating, with no counter-signals such as diplomatic de-escalation or strategic reserve releases evident in this window. Separately, there are notable MAG7-specific signals. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is advising clients to rotate out of chip stocks into hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, META), a bearish signal for NVDA and semis. Intel (INTC) is trading above its 200-day moving average by the largest margin in history, a bullish technical signal. A large dark pool trade of 1M INTC shares at $111.89 was detected, and a $1.2M bullish whale bet on NVDA calls was also noted. These contradict the broader macro narrative of a tech selloff driven by Samsung's disappointing earnings and the chip rout. The semiconductor sector is experiencing a pullback, with the SOXS (bear 3x) ETF surging 13.93%. The AI infrastructure theme remains intact, with a $1.5T CapEx wave noted, but near-term pressure on chip stocks is evident.