WS #11633

The US-Iran conflict has escalated dramatically, with the US launching strikes on over 80 targets in Iran and revoking the oil sales license after Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by striking US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming 85 targets hit. Brent crude surged 2.6% to $76.08/barrel, reversing recent declines. This escalation breaks the fragile ceasefire and threatens supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains at 1/3 to 1/5 of pre-war traffic. The oil price spike is the primary market-moving signal, with broad implications for energy stocks, airlines, and consumer sectors. Separately, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25bps to 2.5%, its first hike since 2023, signaling a tightening bias. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 is set for global launch this Thursday, cleared by the Trump administration, a positive for AI-related tech stocks. Asian markets were mixed, with Hong Kong tech rallying on domestic AI hopes, while South Korea's Kospi fell 2.9% on AI chip selloff. Oil prices jumped over 2% as US-Iran tensions spark supply concerns, with Brent above $76/barrel.