WS #11640

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, with President Trump declaring the interim accord 'over' after tit-for-tat strikes on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian military sites. This has triggered a sharp risk-off move: oil prices surging 5-6%, US equity futures falling, VIX spiking 12%, and rate cut odds dropping to 62%. A Qatari tanker was hit in the Strait, and India is seeking safe passage for nine ships. The narrative is ESCALATING, with no counter-signal yet. Separately, Airbus trimmed its 20-year jet delivery forecast by 1% citing trade and geopolitical disruption, which is a negative for aerospace. On the corporate front, Dream Finders Homes boosted its bid for Beazer Homes to $875M ($32/share, 70% premium), and Kodiak Gas Services announced a multi-year gas turbine agreement with Baker Hughes for up to 1.8 GW of data center power. Nvidia is noted as trading at its cheapest valuation since pre-AI boom, with BofA seeing 78% upside. Alibaba jumped 12% in Hong Kong on AI/tech rotation. The US trade deficit widened in May.