WS #11644

The dominant market-moving narrative is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire over, launching strikes on Iranian boats, and threatening further military action including a potential blockade and seizure of Kharg Island. This has triggered a risk-off open in US equities (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq lower), a surge in oil prices, and a flight to safe havens. The IMF has revised South Korea's growth forecast upward due to AI hardware exports but warned of AI correction risks. Separately, Apple lost an EU court challenge to DMA gatekeeper rules, and Broadcom secured a multi-year chip supply deal with Apple. The US-Ukraine Patriot missile license deal and NATO's €70B aid pledge are ongoing but not new. The Iran crisis is the primary driver, with second-order effects on energy, airlines, and defense sectors.