WS #11655

The dominant market-moving theme is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and threatening further strikes, including on Kharg Island. Iran has responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz after each US attack. Oil prices surged over 7% (WTI, Brent) on the renewed hostilities and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears. This is a significant escalation from the previous window, where the ceasefire was already fragile. The narrative is clearly ESCALATING. Separately, Russia confirmed a diesel export ban until July 31 after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, adding to global fuel supply tightness. The Apple-Broadcom $30B chip deal is a positive for both AAPL and AVGO, but is being overshadowed by the geopolitical risk. China plans to let top AI firms buy limited Nvidia H200 chips, which is a positive for NVDA and Chinese tech. The US-Iran escalation is the dominant market-moving theme, with oil and energy stocks rallying while broader equities sell off.