WS #11660

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'effectively over' at the NATO summit, threatened additional strikes 'tonight,' and confirmed US strikes on Iran killed 8 Iranian personnel. This triggered a sharp risk-off move: Brent crude surged 4-7% to a two-week high above $77, WTI rose ~5% to $73.91, US indices opened lower (Dow -1.13%, S&P 500 -0.65%, Nasdaq -0.48%), and gold fell as yields rose on inflation fears. Airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) dropped 2-3% on fuel cost concerns, while oil stocks (XOM, CVX, OXY) rallied. The escalation is corroborated across Al Jazeera, AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, and multiple social media sources, marking high significance. A partial counter-signal emerged: Germany offered to minesweep the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump left the door open for negotiators to continue, but the dominant narrative is escalation. Separately, Apple announced a $30B+ multiyear chip deal with Broadcom (AVGO) for US manufacturing, boosting AVGO ~3% and providing a MAG7-specific positive signal that contradicts the broader tech selloff. Russia banned diesel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, adding to refined product supply tightness. The IMF left global growth forecasts largely unchanged, noting AI offsetting Middle East fallout. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING.