WS #11662

The dominant market-moving signal in this window is the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and vowing further strikes. This has triggered a sharp risk-off move: Brent crude surged 4.2% to $77.24, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Dow dropped 0.8%. Energy stocks (XOM, CVX) are rallying on the oil spike, while airlines (DAL), consumer discretionary, and growth stocks are selling off on inflation fears and higher bond yields. The situation is ESCALATING relative to the prior stable frame, with no counter-signals yet. Separately, Trump indicated he may allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptors, a potential positive for defense contractors (LMT, RTX) but vague on execution. The Apple-Broadcom chip deal extension to 2031 is confirmed, supporting AVGO. Russia has officially banned all diesel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, which could further tighten global fuel markets. The Nvidia valuation narrative (cheaper than peers) and Dell price target upgrade are secondary signals. The prevailing macro narrative is risk-off due to Iran escalation, with energy bullish and most other sectors bearish.