WS #11664

The dominant market-moving narrative is the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, confirmed by President Trump's statement that the ceasefire is 'over' after mutual strikes. This has triggered a sharp risk-off move: oil prices surged over 7% (Brent above $80, WTI near $75), the dollar strengthened, and equity markets fell (Dow down over 1%, European indices down 2-3%). The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point, with Saudi efforts to revive loadings at Ras Tanura meeting buyer caution due to renewed threats. Iran's foreign ministry stated the MOU was based on 'commitment for commitment' and warned it will protect its interests. Pakistan called for restraint. The EU's Kaja Kallas said strikes 'further complicate' talks. This escalation is a high-significance development that counters any prior de-escalation thesis. Separately, OpenAI launched GPT-Live-1 and GPT-Live-1 Mini, a new voice model, which is a positive signal for AI-related tech names. Nvidia received a bullish note from BofA reiterating a $350 price target, calling the stock 'compelling value' at 15x forward EBITDA, which is a positive MAG7 carve-out against the broader risk-off macro. Russia announced a ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, adding to energy supply concerns. TJX reported strong Q1 FY27 results (sales +9%, EPS +29%) and disclosed a $490M tariff refund pending, a positive consumer discretionary signal. The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, while the AI narrative remains STABLE with positive company-specific signals.