WS #11686

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in US-Iran military conflict, with multiple sources corroborating new US airstrikes on Iran and Trump's declaration that the ceasefire is over. This is a significant escalation from the previous stable narrative. The strikes are in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has threatened to close the strait. Oil prices are rising sharply (Brent +5.2% to $78, briefly touching $80), while gold slides and the S&P 500 and Dow fall. The Nasdaq is up, supported by semiconductor strength (NVDA +3.65%, AVGO +4.83% on Apple chip deal). A counter-signal is present: Trump suggested the fighting would not lead to long-term military action, but the immediate escalation dominates. Other notable signals include: OFAC revoking the Iran oil sanctions relief (General License X), which counters any bullish oil supply thesis; META planning a $13B Alberta data centre; and a Supreme Court ruling striking down limits on party spending. The US-Iran conflict is the clear market-moving theme, with oil, energy, and defense stocks as primary beneficiaries, while airlines and consumer stocks face headwinds.