WS #11692

The US-Iran ceasefire has definitively collapsed, with President Trump declaring it 'over' at the NATO summit and the US launching a second consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets, including around the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, AP, GDELT, social media). Brent crude surged 5.2% to $78.02, briefly topping $80, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% before recovering to -0.3% on mixed signals from Trump. The Dow dropped ~550 points. The macro narrative is ESCALATING: oil spike, inflation fears, and geopolitical risk dominate. However, the Nasdaq eked out a gain of 0.2% on semiconductor strength, creating a split tape. Key counter-signals include Trump's suggestion that the latest exchange does not herald a return to full-scale war, and the fact that negotiations are still technically ongoing. On the tech side, Apple announced a $30B+ multi-year deal with Broadcom for US-made chips, supporting AVGO and AAPL. SK Hynix's US IPO is reportedly more than 7x oversubscribed, indicating strong demand for memory/semiconductor exposure. META COO Javier Olivan sold ~$2.1M in stock, a bearish insider signal for META. The Fed minutes revealed deep division on rate path, with half of officials seeing hikes by year-end. Russia banned diesel exports after Ukrainian refinery strikes, adding to energy supply tightness. Trump also threatened a trade embargo on Spain over NATO spending disputes.