WS #11694

The dominant narrative is the renewed US-Iran conflict, which escalated sharply in this window. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit, and the US launched fresh strikes on over 80 Iranian targets, with Iran retaliating against US bases. This has sent oil prices surging ~5-8% (Brent to ~$78, WTI to ~$74), causing a broad market selloff (Dow -1.09%, S&P 500 -0.28%) while energy stocks and select tech (NVDA +3.65%, AVGO +4.83%) outperformed. The Nasdaq managed a slight gain (+0.20%) as semiconductor stocks rebounded. The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% citing the war and trade fragmentation. A key counter-signal emerged: the IMF assumes the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in mid-July, and the EIA reported a surprise crude inventory build of 2.998M barrels, suggesting some supply relief. However, Trump's threat of further strikes tonight keeps the risk elevated. Separately, Apple announced a $30B+ chip supply deal with Broadcom for US manufacturing, supporting AVGO and AAPL. Justice Alito's retirement from the Supreme Court creates political uncertainty but has limited direct market impact. The US-Iran escalation is the clear signal, with the oil spike and market rotation as the primary effects.