WS #11698

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply, with Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and the US launching new strikes on Iran. Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, and sirens have sounded in Jordan. Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf stated the Strait of Hormuz will only open under Iranian arrangements, and Iran threatens to close the strait entirely if attacked further. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude crossing $80/barrel, and US equities fell (Dow -1.09%, S&P 500 -0.28%) while energy stocks rose. The Fed minutes showed inflation concerns persist due to energy prices. Separately, SK Hynix's US IPO is oversubscribed by over 7x, and Levi Strauss raised its FY2026 outlook. China's June CPI missed expectations (+1.0% vs +1.1% expected), while PPI was in line at +4.1%. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with oil supply disruption fears driving energy stocks higher and pressuring broader indices. The Iran threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is a new escalation point that could push oil prices significantly higher.