WS #11702

The US-Iran conflict has escalated dramatically, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and ordering fresh strikes after Iran attacked US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran's Parliament Speaker stated the Strait of Hormuz will only open under 'Iranian arrangements,' while oil prices surged (Brent near $78.80/barrel). This marks a significant escalation from the previous window's 'managed instability' narrative. However, a potential counter-signal emerged: Trump stated Iran called 'a while ago' and 'wants to make a deal,' suggesting diplomatic off-ramps remain possible despite the renewed hostilities. The BOJ maintained its regional economic assessment for all 9 regions, indicating no change in Japan's outlook. China's June CPI rose 1.0% YoY (in line with expectations) while PPI rose 4.1% YoY, showing persistent deflationary pressures. Apple's $30B Broadcom chip deal and testing of CXMT memory chips for cost reduction are notable company-specific developments. The US-Iran situation remains the dominant market driver, with oil prices, inflation expectations, and rate hike probabilities all affected.