WS #11705

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply with a second consecutive night of strikes. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' and ordered fresh attacks, with CENTCOM reporting 90 targets struck including missile depots and coastal defenses. Iran retaliated by striking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil prices surged, with Brent topping $80/barrel and WTI above $74, as the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Trump claimed Iran called seeking a deal, but the immediate trajectory is further escalation. Separately, Russia banned diesel exports entirely due to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, adding to energy supply tightness. Bitcoin ETFs saw $85M in outflows, while ether ETFs had $70M in inflows. China's June CPI rose 1.0% YoY and PPI rose 4.1% YoY, in line with expectations. CXMT set a $4.3B Shanghai IPO date amid the memory boom. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, with oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk assets all affected. The Russia diesel ban and Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure add a second energy supply shock.