WS #11708

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate sharply, with new US airstrikes on Bushehr and Iranian retaliation against US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, with only 14 cargo ships transiting yesterday, the lowest since the June 16 MOU. Oil prices remain elevated with Brent near $78.8, though easing slightly from earlier spikes. The IMO Secretary-General condemned new attacks on ships in the Strait. Counter-signals: Pertamina tanker successfully exited the Strait, suggesting some shipping lanes remain open. Separately, Ukraine continued drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting depots in Tver and Stavropol and setting oil tankers ablaze in the Sea of Azov, adding to the Russia diesel export ban and fuel crisis. This dual energy supply shock supports bullish oil and energy equities. On the tech side, China's A-share semiconductor stocks surged after ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) set its IPO subscription date for July 16, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, triggering a rally in the STAR 50 index (+8.4%). Apple is reportedly testing CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbying Washington for approval. The French competition authority indicated its Nvidia probe is nearing completion. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, with oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk assets all affected. The Russia diesel ban and Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure add a second energy supply shock. Counter-signals: Pertamina Pride tanker successfully transited Strait of Hormuz, suggesting some shipping lanes remain open, dampening the bearish oil supply thesis.