WS #11716

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate sharply, with new US strikes on Iran and Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over'. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to target US bases in the region if aggression continues, and Iran fired ten ballistic missiles at Jordan's Azraq military base. Oil prices surged more than 5% on the news, with Brent crude around $78-79/bbl. The Strait of Hormuz traffic is reportedly restored to 50% of pre-war levels, but the Qatar LNG expansion pause remains a significant supply-side concern. European natural gas prices hit €50/MWh, a one-month high. The Ukraine-Russia energy war is also intensifying, with Ukrainian drones striking multiple Russian oil depots and tankers, causing a fuel crisis in Russia. Russia scrambled Su-57 stealth fighters to defend a refinery but failed to stop the attack. On the macro front, US initial jobless claims came in at 215K vs 217K expected, a slight positive, but the 30Y Treasury yield tagged a 7-week high at 5.08%. Fed's Williams noted inflation is 'far too high' and AI investment is a driver of inflation, reinforcing a cautious Fed stance. In corporate news, Apple is reportedly in talks with startup PrismML to bring massive AI models directly to iPhone, a significant development for on-device AI. Meta broke ground on its first Canadian data center and launched Muse Image. Apollo's $35B AI chip credit deal is set to begin trading. Simply Good Foods beat low expectations and raised FY26 guidance, surging 19% premarket. Micron boosted US investment plans to over $250B through 2035. The narrative arc for US-Iran is ESCALATING, Ukraine-Russia energy war is ESCALATING, and the Qatar LNG pause is a new bearish supply signal. The Apple-PrismML development is a bullish signal for on-device AI and a potential competitive threat to cloud AI providers.