WS #11724

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with cross-source corroboration from BBC, Bloomberg, AP, and multiple social media accounts confirming a steep decline in Strait of Hormuz traffic (only 23 ships on Wednesday vs 47 a week prior, down from a pre-conflict average of 138). The US has conducted additional strikes (90 targets on July 8, including a strategic railway bridge), and Iran has retaliated by attacking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. This marks a clear ESCALATION of the US-Iran conflict narrative, breaking the relative calm of the previous window. The ceasefire deal signed June 17 is effectively collapsing. Oil prices spiked intraday (Brent tested $80.59) but have since pulled back to ~$77.87, suggesting markets are pricing in disruption but not a full blockade. The CFTC blocking CME's 24/7 oil futures plan adds a regulatory twist. Separately, PepsiCo reported worse-than-expected Q2 EPS, citing tighter consumer budgets, sending shares lower. Meta introduced Muse Spark 1.1 with aggressive pricing to compete with Anthropic/OpenAI, and Micron crossed $1,000 after boosting US investment plans. TeraWulf surged on a $3.5B data center deal with Anthropic. These tech-specific signals are bullish for the respective tickers but occur against a macro backdrop of geopolitical risk.