WS #11748

The dominant macro theme remains the US-Iran conflict, which is actively ESCALATING. US military strikes on Iran continue for a third day, hitting oil infrastructure in Chabahar, Bushehr, and Ahvaz, while Iran retaliated with attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. However, a key counter-signal emerged: President Trump stated that Iran has called seeking a deal, and oil prices have pulled back sharply (WTI down ~2% to $72.08, Brent down ~2.2% to $76.30) as markets price in potential de-escalation. The narrative is shifting from pure escalation to a possible diplomatic off-ramp, which would be bearish for oil and bullish for equities and airlines. Separately, the Fed formally announced the leadership of its monetary policy task forces, including prominent names like Marc Andreessen, Mervyn King, and Greg Mankiw, signaling a potential shift in policy framework. In corporate news, Volkswagen's works council rejected plant closures and set an ultimatum for the CEO, adding uncertainty to VWAGY. OpenAI released ChatGPT 5.6 after a delay over White House cybersecurity concerns. Dark pool alerts show large institutional buying in SPY ($188.75M and $101.94M). The macro picture is dominated by Middle East tensions, but tech stocks are rallying on AI optimism, with the S&P 500 up 0.8%.