WS #11759

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities. President Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' and US strikes resumed, targeting over 80 Iranian sites in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sustaining upward pressure on oil prices. This is an ESCALATION of the prior narrative. Counter-signals include the US official stating commitment to finding a resolution and technical talks continuing, but the immediate market impact is bearish for equities and bullish for energy. Separately, a major dark pool block of $IBM ($917M) was detected, and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 is now integrated into Microsoft 365 Copilot, a positive for MSFT. The tech-led rally resilient to geopolitical noise narrative is being tested by the renewed conflict.