WS #11762

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Trump declared the ceasefire 'over,' and both sides launched fresh strikes on July 9. Oil prices spiked then eased, with Brent crude settling at $78.02 after hitting $80. The Strait of Hormuz traffic has 'effectively ground to a halt,' per Lloyd's List. However, markets showed resilience: S&P 500 closed +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.61%, driven by AI/semiconductor strength. A key counter-signal emerged: Trump hinted Iran is seeking a deal, and the US dollar slipped on easing inflation expectations. Separately, SK Hynix priced its record $26.5B ADR IPO at $149, debuting on Nasdaq July 10. META surged +4.7% on the day, contradicting any macro risk-off narrative. Costco fell to 6-month lows after management flagged margin compression and slowing traffic. The Fed's new task force, including Marc Andreessen and former Walmart CEO, signals a shift toward real-time data in policy.