WS #11764

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant macro theme, but this window shows a notable de-escalation in market reaction. Despite Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' and renewed strikes, oil prices fell sharply (WTI -1.96% to $72.08, Brent -2.61% to $75.98), and US stock indices rallied (S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.6%). Markets are pricing in a calibrated, limited conflict rather than full-scale war, supported by reports that the US is preparing for a 'confrontation of several days to weeks' and that hundreds of tankers have successfully transited the strait. The key counter-signal is that Qatar and Pakistan are trying to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations, and Trump hinted Iran is seeking a deal. This narrative arc is STABLE relative to the prior window's escalation, with markets looking through the noise. On the corporate front, several high-significance developments emerged. OpenAI launched GPT-5.6, its strongest cybersecurity model yet, with CEO Altman claiming 54% more token efficiency for coding tasks. SK Hynix priced its US ADR IPO at $149 per ADS, debuting Friday, with strong demand. Meta jumped 4.7% on Muse Spark 1.1 and Zuckerberg's return to X. Microsoft is quietly replacing OpenAI and Anthropic models with its own MAI models to cut costs, a bearish signal for OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise traction. Nvidia shares saw a slight recovery on reports China may allow limited H200 purchases, providing a partial offset to the stock's recent decline. New Hampshire's executive council rejected a $100M bitcoin bond tied to CleanSpark, a setback for crypto adoption. The European Parliament voted to advance negotiations on a digital euro, a significant step for CBDCs.